Real Estate Talk Blog for the Willamette Valley

I do the market update every week for Real Estate Talk - and I post it here.  In last week's show, I asked the question "What does this all mean to you?" after the update.

Here's what I think, but I'd be interested in YOUR opinions.  Please post them to this BLOG for all.

 It seems like over the past 6 months, every time we start to see what may be a turning point in the market something NEW kicks in and the confidence that people should have in the market disappears. I have been talking over the past few weeks with some optimism as inventory in the mid-valley has been stabilizing and the sales numbers starting to see some pick up…nothing dramatic but there was a generally positive tone to the numbers and from what I was hearing anecdotally from my fellow real estate professionals. This week, there was STILL some good news to be found, but I fear that the trends are not going to continue and primarily because of the newest wrinkle in the economy coming from these skyrocketing oil prices. *Remember, I do a 90 day average here on Real Estate Talk so the impact of events today get averaged into the prior 89 previous days…

I’ve said this before on the show but I think its important to emphasize this point again…

** IF you do NOT need to sell your home, you may want to consider taking it off the market and help to reduce the existing inventory. The houses that are going to sell in today’s environment are those that are priced aggressively and stand out from the crowd. If you need to sell, be very aware of your pricing strategy, make sure that you are doing everything you can to improve your curb appeal and showability…and if you are trying to decide between selling and remodeling, think long and hard about your choices and the costs involved. 

** If you are a buyer today – get your financing lined up. Get pre-approved, not just pre-qualified. You will increase your negotiating strength ten-fold if you have no house to sell and have solid financing…you have a real opportunity today as a buyer.

So...what do YOU think?

(1) “SOLD” statistics include both SOLD and PENDING

(2) Months of Inventory Calculation based on the rate of sales in the previous 90 days.

Albany

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 198
• Average price – $212,992
• Median Sale Price – $194,750
• Average Days on the Market – 124
• Average Dollar per Square Foot - $132.28
• Current Active Listings – 486
• Average Price of Active Listings - $261,837
• Months of Inventory – 7.36

Corvallis

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 154
• Average price – $295,835
• Median Sale Price – $271,000
• Average Days on the Market – 108
• Average Dollar per Square Foot - $166.53
• Current Active Listings – 253
• Average Price of Active Listings - $343,488
• Months of Inventory – 4.93

Lebanon

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 52
• Average price – $171,001
• Median Sale Price – $145,600
• Average Days on the Market – 93
• Average Dollar per Square Foot – $111.50
• Current Active Listings – 181
• Average Price of Active Listings - $186,700
• Months of Inventory – 10.44

Last – Thursday, July 24. Monthly Real Estate Luncheon. Guests will include Ana Norlander (Windermere Willamette Valley); Kelly Gardner (Pinnacle Mortgage); and Brent Norlander (Wells Fargo). Our topic will be FreddieMac and FannieMae, and the current conditions in the lending environment. Let us help you sort out all the hype…and get the right information to make a good decision in today’s real estate market.

Upcoming Guests Scheduled:

August

Saturday, August 2. Tentatively Scheduled-Polly Cappalo (Winderemere) - How to sell your home in a tough market.  We'll be talking about creative marketing, home staging, effective pricing strategies, and giving sellers some insights into how to get that SOLD sign in the front yard.

Thursday, August 7 / Saturday, August 9. Roland Brower (State Farm Insurance) is scheduled to be the guest. Our topics will include home owners insurance, getting the binder during the purchase process, Flood insurance issues, and a general overview of what types of coverage you need. *Encore airing on 9 August.

Saturday, August 16 – Donna Jo Merrifield (Coldwell Banker Valley Brokers) Understanding the Earnest Money Agreement – what do all the clauses mean? How can you protect yourself and what you NEED to understand before you sign one (either as a buyer OR a seller).

Thursday, August 21 / Saturday, August 23 – To Be Determined

Saturday, August 30 – To Be Determined

Upcoming Show topics that I’m working to put together for you in August:

- 1^st Time Home buyer – Down Payment Assistance programs

I've been talking to a number of potential buyers lately - and there seems to be a lot of buying 'activity' but no decisions.  Everyone is waiting for the market to bottom...trying to find the "PERFECT TIME TO BUY."

     Hmmm...is waiting the right answer?  Maybe.  But the best answer depends on more than one factor.  For example, even if you can accurately assume that prices are going to come down (further), what is going to happen to interest rates?  More importantly, what does that mean to the monthly payment (for many - the REAL bottom line).

Let's take a quick look:

Albany Oregon - January 2008 - Median SOLD price over the previous 90 days - $183,754

   The 30 year fixed rate mortgage was (according to FreddieMac) - 5.48 percent.  Your montly Principal and Interest payment (asssuming 10% down payment) would have been $936.92.

     What about today?  In Albany Oregon today, the median SOLD price over the past 90 days was $194,750 (up a little - but it's been sort of a wave over the past few months).  However, the prevailing 30 year fixed rate loan is now 6.26 percent!  With that same 10 percent downpayment, your monthly Principal and Interest payment is now $1080.33 - almost $150 MORE each month!

Ok, you thought prices were coming down, right?  In fact, if you look at the ACTIVE listings (let's use the median ASKING price) and do the same math.

January 2008 - Median asking price $229,900.  With 10% down and at the prevailing 5.48 percent interest - your monthly payment (not including taxes and insurance) - $1172.21

July 2008 - Median asking price is $215,549 (now that's more like it, huh?)  But, the interest rate is now 6.26 percent so, with your 10% down your monthly payment is $1195.71.

Bet you wished you'd pulled the trigger in January!

It’s really tough to time the market. If you wait – interest rates could continue to move up (prevailing wisdom is that they aren't going DOWN anytime soon - at least not back to the mid 5 percent range!)…and while prices could come down further, that means you’ll probably get less for your house (when you sell) too. If you wait too long, prices will be going up…and who knows what will happen to the interest rates. It’s almost too many factors to try and calculate…and the future is pretty un-certain.

I would offer only one suggestion to your approach to this – make it about the HOME.  Any decision to sell and buy something new should take everything into account (the logic behind a good decision HAS to be there), but at the end of the day it has to be about where is the right place for your family. When it comes along, you’ll know, and everything else will fall into place, and the decision will be easy.

Let me know if there is any way that I can help…or if there is any other information you need.

I thought it would be fun to work with a first time home buyer through the entire process...and share it with my listeners on the air. 

If you are thinking about buying your first home and would be willing to share your time and experiences with our listeners we're looking for YOU.  I am now taking applications for participants.  The winner will be selected and we'll be off and running on the radio. 

The first show will be dedicated to you and your situation.  We will talk (in general terms, we don't want to impact you personal private information) about your financial situation and what you need to do to get pre-qualified and pre-approved.  We'll establish a general budget and find out what you want in a home.

Then, each week we'll spend about 10 minutes of each edition of Real Estate Talk talking with you about how things are going.  You'll share your frustrations and your high points with our listeners, helping them to get a realistic view of the process.  This weekly segment can be done easily over the phone OR in the studio. 

If you're interested in participating - check out this link CLICK HERE for more information.

(1) “SOLD” statistics include both SOLD and PENDING
(2) Months of Inventory Calculation based on the rate of sales in the previous 90 days.

Albany

SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 194

• Average price – $215,549
• Median Sale Price – $192,490
• Average Days on the Market – 123
• Average Dollar per Square Foot - $132.93

Current Active Listings – 485

• Average Price of Active Listings - $260,832
• Months of Inventory – 7.5

Corvallis

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 157
• Average price – $291,393
• Median Sale Price – $270,500
• Average Days on the Market – 106
• Average Dollar per Square Foot - $165.97
• Current Active Listings – 250
• Average Price of Active Listings - $342,425
• Months of Inventory – 4.78

Lebanon

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 55
• Average price – $169,663
• Median Sale Price – $150,000
• Average Days on the Market – 91
• Average Dollar per Square Foot – $112.08
• Current Active Listings – 174
• Average Price of Active Listings - $189,900
• Months of Inventory – 9.49

Last – Saturday, July 19. Reverse Mortgages will be the topic with my guest Jim Becker, Reverse Mortgage Manager, Wells Fargo Home Mortgage. Do you qualify for a Reverse Mortgage and is it the right step for you? How does it work and what are the benefits and costs? If you are over age 62 and own your home…you’ll want to listen to this show.

Upcoming Guests Scheduled:

July

    Thursday, July 24. Monthly Real Estate Luncheon. Guests will include Ana Norlander (Windermere Willamette Valley); Kelly Gardner (Pinnacle Mortgage); and Brent Norlander (Wells Fargo). Our topic will be FreddieMac and FannieMae, and the current conditions in the lending environment. Let us help you sort out all the hype…and get the right information to make a good decision in today’s real estate market. *This show will air as an encore performance on Saturday, July 26.

August

Saturday, August 2. Tentatively Scheduled-Polly Cappalo (Winderemere)

Thursday, August 7 / Saturday, August 9. Roland Brower (State Farm Insurance) is scheduled to be the guest. Our topics will include home owners insurance, getting the binder during the purchase process, Flood insurance issues, and a general overview of what types of coverage you need.

Saturday, August 16 – To Be Determined

Thursday, August 21 / Saturday, August 23 – To Be Determined

Saturday, August 30 – To Be Determined

Upcoming Show topics that I’m working to put together for you in August:

- Understanding the Earnest Money Agreement – what do all the clauses mean? How can you protect yourself and what you NEED to understand before you sign one (either as a buyer OR a seller).

- 1^st Time Home buyer – Down Payment Assistance programs

(1) “SOLD” statistics include both SOLD and PENDING

(2) Months of Inventory Calculation based on the rate of sales in the previous 90 days.

Albany

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 194
• Average price – $214,585
• Median Sale Price – $192,245
• Average Days on the Market – 124
• Average Dollar per Square Foot - $132.66
• Current Active Listings – 482
• Average Price of Active Listings - $259,852
• Months of Inventory – 7.45

Corvallis

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 155
• Average price – $289,146
• Median Sale Price – $262,500
• Average Days on the Market – 110
• Average Dollar per Square Foot - $165.99
• Current Active Listings – 245
• Average Price of Active Listings - $343,844
• Months of Inventory – 4.74

Lebanon

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 53
• Average price – $168,320
• Median Sale Price – $144,750
• Average Days on the Market – 86
• Average Dollar per Square Foot – $111.06
• Current Active Listings – 167
• Average Price of Active Listings - $192,715
• Months of Inventory – 9.45

Last – Saturday, July 12 – Is a custom home the right choice for you? Sue Long of Keller Williams Realty and Krishna Rao, builder and developer will be here discussing building a custom home, from understanding the financing through the building process.

Upcoming Guests Scheduled:

July

Saturday, July 19. Reverse Mortgages will be the topic with my guest Jim Becker, Reverse Mortgage Manager, Wells Fargo Home Mortgage. Do you qualify for a Reverse Mortgage and is it the right step for you? How does it work and what are the benefits and costs? If you are over age 62 and own your home…you’ll want to listen to this show.

Upcoming Show topics that I’m working to put together for you in July:

• Flood Insurance Information
• New legislation effecting foreclosures
• Real Estate Roundtable

(1) “SOLD” statistics include both SOLD and PENDING

(2) Months of Inventory Calculation based on the rate of sales in the previous 90 days.

Albany

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 191
• Average price – $211,686
• Median Sale Price – $190,950
• Average Days on the Market – 122
• Average Dollar per Square Foot - $132.95
• Current Active Listings – 469
• Average Price of Active Listings - $261,837
• Months of Inventory – 7.37

Corvallis

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 144
• Average price – $300,330
• Median Sale Price – $271,500
• Average Days on the Market – 112
• Average Dollar per Square Foot - $165.05
• Current Active Listings – 238
• Average Price of Active Listings - $340,309
• Months of Inventory – 4.96

Lebanon

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 49
• Average price – $165,893
• Median Sale Price – $145,150
• Average Days on the Market – 93
• Average Dollar per Square Foot – $112.88
• Current Active Listings – 170
• Average Price of Active Listings - $190,172
• Months of Inventory – 10.41

Last – Thursday, July 03 – Bill and Julie Flesher, Coldwell Banker Valley Brokers (Lebanon) will be in giving us some insights into commercial real estate today. *Encore airing on Saturday 05 July.

Upcoming Guests Scheduled:

June

Saturday, July 12 – Is a custom home the right choice for you? Sue Long of Keller Williams Realty and Krishna Rao, builder and developer will be here discussing building a custom home, from understanding the financing through the building process.

Saturday, July 19. Reverse Mortgages will be the topic with my guest Jim Becker, Reverse Mortgage Manager, Wells Fargo Home Mortgage. Do you qualify for a Reverse Mortgage and is it the right step for you? How does it work and what are the benefits and costs? If you are over age 62 and own your home…you’ll want to listen to this show.

Upcoming Show topics that I’m working to put together for you in July:

Flood Insurance Information

New legislation effecting foreclosures

LOOKING for the best bargains in today's market in Albany?

I'm adding a new page to my website just to help YOU find them.  I actively look for properties that

• are significantly Under Market Value
• Have highly motivated sellers
• Offer hidden potential
• That have an easily correctable flaw that most buyers can't see past

I'll let you know why the pros and cons about each one - to help YOU see behind the curtain and find out whether its right for you.  As I find them, I'll post them so check back often - who knows, that hidden gem you've been looking for might be right here.

One thing - and this is important - these are NOT my listings, and won't be ones from my office either.  I'm working for you here, to search the broader MLS and find the screaming deals.  I am a Buyer's Agent ONLY when it comes to homes on this web-page.

Here's the page, check it out.  I"ll add more homes as I find them for you.

www.DavePautschRealEstate.com/HotDealsforBuyers