Real Estate Talk Blog for the Willamette Valley

Real Estate Talk Market Update for 01 November, 2007

(1) “SOLD” statistics include both SOLD and PENDING

(2) Months of Inventory Calculation based on the rate of sales in the previous 90 days.

Albany

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 258
• Average price – $223,090
• Median Sale Price – $199,950
• Average Days on the Market – 116
• Average Dollar per Square Foot - $133.71
• Current Active Listings – 435
• Average Price of Active Listings - $265,031
• Months of Inventory – 5.06

Corvallis

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 157
• Average price – $297,547
• Median Sale Price – $282,197
• Average Days on the Market – 75
• Average Dollar per Square Foot - $167.92
• Current Active Listings – 243
• Average Price of Active Listings - $354,996
• Months of Inventory – 4.64

Lebanon

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 50
• Average price – $171,149
• Median Sale Price – $162,000
• Average Days on the Market – 114
• Average Dollar per Square Foot – $118.11
• Current Active Listings – 159
• Average Price of Active Listings - $223,781
• Months of Inventory – 9.54

Today’s guest – 1 November – In a special Thursday edition of Real Estate Talk John Pascone of the Albany/Millersburg Economic Development Corporation was here to talk about the economic outlook for our area (encore presentation on 3 November)

Upcoming Guests Scheduled:

• 10 November – Mary Hartley, ReMax Integrity – Is now a good time to buy or sell?
• 15 November – Special Thursday Real Estate Talk - Bill Higby, Willamette Community Bank will be here talking about financial aspects of buying investment property (encore presentation on 17 November)
• 24 November – Kelly Gardner of Pinnacle Mortgage will be back to continue our discussion about harnessing the equity in your home
• 01 December – Jessica Pankratz of Town and Country Realty on the California housing market
• 6 December – Laura Uhler, Solar Ki – Solar energy for your home; building an energy efficient home and retrofitting your home with solar power

Wondering what in the heck is going on in the housing market in Oregon's Willamette Valley?  I have been working to come up with a model that can help you.

Think of the housing market as a PYRAMID.  The base of the pyramid is made up of primarily first time home buyers, or buyers of properties in the lower (entry level) price ranges.  Here in the Albany for example, that is pretty much homes under $200,000.

The second level of the pyramid represents the homes priced above $200,000, but below $350,000.  These are the homes that the first time home buyers want to MOVE UP to...and the home owners there are looking to move up as well.

Ok, following the logic, the next tier is the secondary move up homes, prices between say $350,000 and $500,000, with the top cap of the pyramid being Luxury homes priced above $500,000.

Make sense?

With the sub-prime mess this summer, this had a HUGE impact on the first time buyer.  The boom had been fed for the past few years with an influx of these buyers entering the market (many with 100% financing) and fueling the base...allowing the move up buyers to move UP...increasing the ready pool of buyers all around.  NOW, the buyers are on the sidelines for one of two reasons:

1. They can't qualify due to credit problems
2. They don't have sufficient cash assets for a downpayment

This put a kind of a stall on the market here because the move up buyers were out shopping and making Contingent offers...but then couldn't consumate the deal because THEIR home hadn't sold. 

If the entry level homes don't sell, it erodes the base of the pyramid and the flow upward can't take place resulting in an increase in inventory...and a softening in prices.  Friends and neighbors, it's simple supply and demand!

This was then compounded by the national news media continuing every night to hype the gloom and doom...resulting in other qualified buyers sitting on the sidelines to wait.

So, where are we today?

• Economics are still strong (I saw a report on the GDP today and nationally, we're in pretty good shape there).  Locally, here in Albany/Lebanon/Corvallis we are still creating jobs, umemployment is still at manageable levels, and new businesses are moving in to the area.
• Interest rates are STILL at great, low levels.  This is good news for those people with ARMS due to reset; while the rates will be higher depending on your credit...they could still be manageable. 
• There IS money out there for qualified buyers (you're going to have to have at least 5 or 10% to put down and a good credit score)
• There is LOTS of excellent inventory out there, many with motivated sellers

Look for a decrease in inventory as we approach the holidays with some sellers taking their homes off the market. 

After the Christmas bills get paid, I would anticipate that buyers are going to start coming back to the market.  They may not be in the quantities we saw last spring, but hopefully they will be complemented by investors looking to take advantage of this new buying opportunity.

By late Spring, I would anticipate (with no other big monkey wrenches being thrown in) that our local market will be fairly stable, with prices only 1 or 2% down from last year...if at all.

It's a Buyer's Market today and I would expect that to be the case for the foreseeable future.  If you're interested in finding a new home...give me a call!

Hear Ye Hear Ye Hear Ye

My office is working to put together a series of FREE Workshops on real estate subjects with the idea of helping to get some good information into the hands of local consumers to help them make good decisions.

The workshops will be about 1 and 1/2 hours in length and held in a conference room at a local hotel chain.  We'll be serving light refreshments.  The presenters will be Real Estate Professionals, Title and Escrow Professionals, Lending/Mortgage Professionals, and a Home Inspector.  In addition to the educational materials, there will be opportunities to win some door prizes as well (free Pest and Dryrot Inspection for example).

Here are the topics we are considering:

• Understanding our housing market today
• Buying a home in today's market environment
• Strategies for buying investment properties
• Selling your home in a Buyer's Market

I'd really appreciate YOUR feedback on this:

When would be the best time to hold these workshops?  Weekday evening or Saturday afternoon?

Are there other topics that you think we could cover that you might be interested in?

Sorry this is a few days late...but I was enjoying a wonderful Thanksgiving with my family!  I hope that everyone had a great holiday and that, as we start into the season full-scale that everyone stays safe and well.

Real Estate Talk Market Update for 24 November, 2007

(1) “SOLD” statistics include both SOLD and PENDING

(2) Months of Inventory Calculation based on the rate of sales in the previous 90 days.

Albany

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 229
• Average price – $222,693
• Median Sale Price – $195,000
• Average Days on the Market – 122
• Average Dollar per Square Foot - $132.95
• Current Active Listings – 427
• Average Price of Active Listings - $263,813
• Months of Inventory – 5.59

Corvallis

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 128
• Average price – $301,427
• Median Sale Price – $287,250
• Average Days on the Market – 81
• Average Dollar per Square Foot - $169.71
• Current Active Listings – 233
• Average Price of Active Listings - $350,769
• Months of Inventory – 5.46

Lebanon

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 48
• Average price – $173,681
• Median Sale Price – $163,000
• Average Days on the Market – 103
• Average Dollar per Square Foot – $121.03
• Current Active Listings – 164
• Average Price of Active Listings - $220,762
• Months of Inventory – 10.13

This Week’s guest – 24 November – Kelly Gardner of Pinnacle Mortgage was back to continue our discussion about harnessing the equity in your home.

Upcoming Guests Scheduled:

01 December – Jessica Pankratz of Town and Country Realty on the California housing market

6 December – Laura Uhler, Solar Ki – Solar energy for your home; building an energy efficient home and retrofitting your home with solar power

Ok...I give! UNCLE!

I've been fighting the good fight for at least one day too long I think...I watch the statistics and I know the market in the mid-Willamette Valley and I have been on record as saying that the market is in NEUTRAL since July or August but I'm off the fence now.

Why is it a BUYER'S Market today in Albany Oregon?

• Inventory continues to rise
• The overalll pace of sales continues to slow
• We are entering the "holiday" period where in ANY market, things slow down
• Sellers who WERE holding steadfast to prices and pricing strategies are now showing more motivation and prices are softening

I've been holding on to the fundamentals of the housing market:

• Our local economy is doing fine; unemployment is stable at about 6%
• Interest rates are still VERY LOW compared to historic levels
• Financing is STILL available for qualified buyers

But HERE is what I hadn't accounted for:

• Potential buyers sitting on the sidelines waiting for prices to fall dramatically
• Reluctance of investors to step in too soon
• The impact of the national news every day...and the unwillingness of our local consumers to realize that California and New York housing markets aren't the same as OURS.

 Today in Albany and Lebanon, I think we have hit the mark and can call it a buyer's market with just a few "caveats."

• There ARE still seller's out there who are not in a position of NEEDING to sell...and they'll still hold on to their homes (or will take them off the market)
• Even motivated sellers (unless their is a major issue) will try not to LOSE money on the sale...we are NOT there yet.
• If you are dealing with a short sale or a foreclosure, remember that the BANK is not inclined to lose money either.

 Bottom line...Figure out if you are buying a house (a commodity...an investment) or a HOME and do your research accordingly.  Get qualified and PRE-APPROVED for a loan with a lender you like and trust.  Study the market, the neighborhoods, and if you aren't working with a REALTOR...you should be!

Happy Thanksgiving!

Real Estate Talk Market Update for 14 November, 2007

(1) “SOLD” statistics include both SOLD and PENDING

(2) Months of Inventory Calculation based on the rate of sales in the previous 90 days.

Albany

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 244
• Average price – $224,029
• Median Sale Price – $200,250
• Average Days on the Market – 123
• Average Dollar per Square Foot - $133.30
• Current Active Listings – 451
• Average Price of Active Listings - $265,213
• Months of Inventory – 5.55

Corvallis

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 139
• Average price – $296,608
• Median Sale Price – $280,000
• Average Days on the Market – 74
• Average Dollar per Square Foot - $168.72
• Current Active Listings – 239
• Average Price of Active Listings - $354,172
• Months of Inventory – 5.16

Lebanon

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 49
• Average price – $176,505
• Median Sale Price – $166,900
• Average Days on the Market – 109
• Average Dollar per Square Foot – $122.89
• Current Active Listings – 164
• Average Price of Active Listings - $222,247
• Months of Inventory – 10.04

Today’s guest – 15 November – Special Thursday Real Estate Talk - Bill Higby, Willamette Community Bank was here talking about financial aspects of buying investment property (encore presentation on 17 November) Here's a link to the audio:  http://www.kgal.com/mp3/RealEstateTalk/KGAL_RETalk_2007_11_15.mP3

Upcoming Guests Scheduled:

24 November – Kelly Gardner of Pinnacle Mortgage will be back to continue our discussion about harnessing the equity in your home

01 December – Jessica Pankratz of Town and Country Realty on the California housing market

6 December – Laura Uhler, Solar Ki – Solar energy for your home; building an energy efficient home and retrofitting your home with solar power

On Saturday's Real Estate Talk...

I interviewed a local real estate professional with 13 plus years in this business...one of the TOP BROKERS in our market.  We talked about whether or not now is a good time to buy...and how buyer's can put themselves in the best position.  It was such an informative show that I thought I would post a recap here.  (Here's the audio if you want to listen)

Understanding the local housing market - an Overview 

It is NOT a seller's market any longer here in the valley by any means.  With over 440 homes actively being marketed, there is a large inventory with lots to choose from.  This competition makes it tough on sellers, but there is no indication that buyer's have ALL the leverage either.  The median home sale prices have been relatively stable because the market fundamentals are still positive.  Interest rates are still low, employment is good, job growth is continuing, people are still relocating to the mid-Valley...the demand for housing has remained consistent.

Yes, there are pockets of softness, and a some sellers out there who might be considered "highly motivated" to sell.  But each transaction has a buyer and a seller with individual motivations, so as a buyer you have to educate yourself about the market, the individual home and owner, and your OWN situation.

The bottom line:  Well-conditioned / Well-positioned homes (nice houses - priced right) are still selling quickly.  Over priced homes are stagnating.  If you are looking for a "certain dream home" you could be in competition with other buyers...if you are looking for a bargain - they are out there too.

3 Hints for Getting into the Best Buying Position 

Get Pre-APPROVED (not just pre-qualified).  Meet with a lender you like and trust and get your financing in order so that when you find the home that is right for you...you can move quickly.  This also allows you to make and stick to your budget.  It doesn't make sense to shop outside your price range if you are really interested in buying. 

Eliminate contingencies.  Having a home to SELL before you can buy presents a challenge to a strong offer.  If that is your situation make sure you price YOUR home aggressively to get it sold otherwise you'll lose out.

Do your research.  Pricing and values vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.  Location still matters and so does the property history.  You can do a lot of research on line, but not all the information is available to the general public.  If you aren't working with a real estate professional you like and trust...you should consider it.  Waiting until you FIND the home you want to find a REALTOR® you like is giving away negotiating leverage**. 

   ** A REALTOR can help you: (1) better understand the market, (2) do research to help you understand the specifics of an individual home, (3) find a bargain that isn't obvious without research, (4) get ACCESS to the home, (5) get you in contact with other industry professionals (like inspectors, lenders, title and escrow companies) that you'll need.

Real Estate Talk Market Update for 10 November, 2007

(1) “SOLD” statistics include both SOLD and PENDING

(2) Months of Inventory Calculation based on the rate of sales in the previous 90 days.

Albany

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 253
• Average price – $222,084
• Median Sale Price – $200,000
• Average Days on the Market – 120
• Average Dollar per Square Foot - $133.07
• Current Active Listings – 439
• Average Price of Active Listings - $264,115
• Months of Inventory – 5.21

Corvallis

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 151
• Average price – $296,232
• Median Sale Price – $280,000
• Average Days on the Market – 77
• Average Dollar per Square Foot - $167.73
• Current Active Listings – 241
• Average Price of Active Listings - $353,939
• Months of Inventory – 4.79

Lebanon

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 52
• Average price – $176,668
• Median Sale Price – $163,000
• Average Days on the Market – 111
• Average Dollar per Square Foot – $121.52
• Current Active Listings – 165
• Average Price of Active Listings - $220,089
• Months of Inventory – 9.52

Today’s guest – 10 November – Mary Hartley, ReMax Integrity – Is now a good time to buy or sell?

Upcoming Guests Scheduled:

15 November – Special Thursday Real Estate Talk - Bill Higby, Willamette Community Bank will be here talking about financial aspects of buying investment property (encore presentation on 17 November)

24 November – Kelly Gardner of Pinnacle Mortgage will be back to continue our discussion about harnessing the equity in your home

01 December – Jessica Pankratz of Town and Country Realty on the California housing market

6 December – Laura Uhler, Solar Ki – Solar energy for your home; building an energy efficient home and retrofitting your home with solar power