Real Estate Talk Blog for the Willamette Valley

Real Estate Talk Market Update for 27 October, 2007

(1) “SOLD” statistics include both SOLD and PENDING

(2) Months of Inventory Calculation based on the rate of sales in the previous 90 days.

Albany

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 261
• Average price – $223,140
• Median Sale Price – $200,700
• Average Days on the Market – 115
• Average Dollar per Square Foot - $133.42
• Current Active Listings – 447
• Average Price of Active Listings - $263,670
• Months of Inventory – 5.14

Corvallis

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 167
• Average price – $295,968
• Median Sale Price – $280,000
• Average Days on the Market – 75
• Average Dollar per Square Foot - $168.32
• Current Active Listings – 239
• Average Price of Active Listings - $357,166
• Months of Inventory – 4.29

Lebanon

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 58
• Average price – $169,804
• Median Sale Price – $159,975
• Average Days on the Market – 120
• Average Dollar per Square Foot – $117.25
• Current Active Listings – 161
• Average Price of Active Listings - $221,360
• Months of Inventory – 8.33

Today’s guest – 27 October – Damon Hedges, Cascade Chimney Sweep and mason was in to talk about brickwork projects around the home and maintaining your chimney now that the fall is here.  Downloadable audio will be available soon from the Real Estate Talk web page at www.davepautschrealestate.com.

Upcoming Guests Scheduled:

1 November – In a special Thursday edition of Real Estate Talk John Pascone of the Albany/Millersburg Economic Development Corporation is scheduled to talk about the economic outlook for our area (encore presentation on 3 November)

10 November – Mary Hartley, ReMax Integrity – Is now a good time to buy or sell?

15 November – Special Thursday Real Estate Talk - Bill Higby, Willamette Community Bank will be here talking about financial aspects of buying investment property (encore presentation on 17 November)

24 November – Kelly Gardner of Pinnacle Mortgage will be back to continue our discussion about harnessing the equity in your home

01 December – TBD

6 December – Laura Uhler, Solar Ki – Solar energy for your home; building an energy efficient home and retrofitting your home with solar power

Real Estate Talk Market Update for 20 October, 2007

(1) “SOLD” statistics include both SOLD and PENDING

(2) Months of Inventory Calculation based on the rate of sales in the previous 90 days.

Albany

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 264
• Average price – $226,121
• Median Sale Price – $206,982
• Average Days on the Market – 114
• Average Dollar per Square Foot - $132.80
• Current Active Listings – 446
• Average Price of Active Listings - $264,392
• Months of Inventory – 5.07

* Generally stable from week to week over the past couple of updates, the Albany market has shown the first serious reduction in inventory in a while.  While sales numbers are still slow for the season, and Months of Inventory is holding steady, this seems a positive sign.  As we approach the fall, the traditional seasonal slowing will hit, and it bodes better for all of us if the inventory numbers come down.

Corvallis

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 174
• Average price – $296,747
• Median Sale Price – $280,160
• Average Days on the Market – 74
• Average Dollar per Square Foot - $167.06
• Current Active Listings – 240
• Average Price of Active Listings - $356,277
• Months of Inventory – 4.14

*It might be significant to note that the Months of Inventory in Corvallis has risen in each of last couple of updates.  We are over 4 months of inventory for the first time.  This is most likely the result of the sluggish sales in August and September just now catching up with Corvallis' normally booming market, but it is definitely worth watching.

Lebanon

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 61
• Average price – $168,334
• Median Sale Price – $158,900
• Average Days on the Market – 120
• Average Dollar per Square Foot – $119.77
• Current Active Listings – 143
• Average Price of Active Listings - $218,758
• Months of Inventory – 7.03

*Lebanon showing lots of positive signs this update.  Months of Inventory is back down from it's high (above 8 last update).  Although still within the statistical "Buyer's Market" parameters, if this is the beginning of a trend it is a good one for the overall health of the market.

Today’s guest – 20 October: Kelly Gardner, Pinnacle Mortgage was here with an amazing amount of information and advice on how to harness the equity in your home. This program was so full, we weren’t able to cover the entire topic and Kelly will be back with us on 24 November.

Upcoming Guests Scheduled:

27 October – Damon Hedges, Cascade Chimney Sweep and mason will be in to talk about brickwork projects around the home and maintaining your chimney now that the fall is here.

1 November – In a special Thursday edition of Real Estate Talk John Pascone of the Albany/Millersburg Economic Development Corporation is scheduled to talk about the economic outlook for our area (encore presentation on 3 November)

10 November – Mary Hartley, ReMax Integrity – Is now a good time to buy or sell?

15 November – Special Thursday Real Estate Talk - Bill Higby, Willamette Community Bank will be here talking about financial aspects of buying investment property (encore presentation on 17 November)

24 November – Kelly Gardner of Pinnacle Mortgage will be back to continue our discussion about harnessing the equity in your home

01 December – TBD

6 December – Laura Uhler, Solar Ki – Solar energy for your home; building an energy efficient home and retrofitting your home with solar power

     There are only 2 absolute ways to tell you the value of your home. The first is the price that a qualified buyer is willing to pay for it, and the second is the price that YOU are willing to continue to own it. In other words, there IS no absolute number that anyone can truly provide. There are, however reliable avenues to get in the right ball park.

Appraisal

• Appraisers are real estate professionals in their own right.
• You can hire one yourself if necessary
• Generally hired by a lender to evaluate a piece of property in relation to recently SOLD comparable properties.
• Function is to mitigate lender's risk by providing an independent assessment of the homes value in relation to the loan being made on it.
• Licensed and regulated by the State of Oregon
• Methodologies are generally considered quantifiable and fact-based, looking at data from the PAST.
• Does NOT consider the ACTIVE real estate market.

Comparative (or Competitive) Market Analysis or CMA

• Contact a REALTOR® for a Comparative Market Analysis or CMA. 
• A methodology that looks at SOLD and Pending sales within some rational time period (generally the past 90 days or so)…as well as the conditions in the active real estate market.
• Designed to help a seller position their home for sale in relation to its competition so that it sells in the time frame that you want.
• The Active market is fluid and even the best CMA is likely to be a range of prices. Depending on the specifics of the property and the number of comparable homes out there, that range could be $5000…or $20,000 wide or even wider.
• A CMA is an ESTIMATE only, and as the market changes, so will your best positioning within the market.

Common Problems and Limitations of Valuation Methods

• Some home owners have put their emphasis on what they have put INTO the house. Limitation: What you have invested IN your home is not related to the market outside your home and could be dramatically limited due to other factors
• Other’s look at the prices that their neighbors have listed their homes for sale. Limitation: your neighbor’s pricing strategy may reflect needs different than yours…and you ALSO may not know the true final sales price or amount of seller concessions such as closing costs that were paid.
• Hard to compare "apples to apples" in home valuations.  Consider the number of variables
• Lot size
• Upgrades and amenities in the home
• Neighborhoods
• Schools
• Nearness to shopping or other "quality of life" elements
• The intangible "feel" of floor plan
• What is the best valuation point to use in comparison? 
• Commonly "Dollar per Square Foot" is one way of establishing a range of prices.  This has some inherent problems.  For example, when you think of the value of a home being made up of both fixed (the basic value of the land itself and the structure on it) and variable costs (the size of the house and what went into it) you recognize why smaller homes tend to have a higher $/SqFt value than larger homes.  Homes on large home-sites tend to have a much higher $/SqFt value than those on smaller lots
• All competition is NOT comparable.  When looking at your market position (with respect to your pricing strategy) you must keep in mind that a buyer with $300,000 in hand can look at a broad swath of the market; and not every house will be directly comparable to yours.  But, you are in competition for their dollar!  
• Think of it this way...if I have $8.00 to spend on lunch I can choose a hamburger and fries, a taco plate, spaghetti at a sit down restaurant, or remember my diet and have a salad and a bottle of water.  Each of those options is in competition for my dollar, although no one could say were even remotely "comparable."

Summary

     I started out by saying that there were just two absolute methods to determine the value of your home, what a qualified buyer would pay, and the price at which you would be willing to continue to OWN that home. There are plenty of tools available…appraisers and REALTORS can make the best well-educated analysis to help you position your home in the most effective manner to achieve your goals. But ultimately, as a seller the decision is yours. In the generalist of terms, in our mid-valley housing market today, well conditioned, and well-priced homes are still selling. Homes priced above the market, perhaps to gain the seller room to negotiate…tend to sit on the market longer, and may ultimately sell for less than even the most effective price recommended at the start

Real Estate Talk Market Update for 11/13 October, 2007

(1) “SOLD” statistics include both SOLD and PENDING

(2) Months of Inventory Calculation based on the rate of sales in the previous 90 days.

Albany

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 267
• Average price – $227,044
• Median Sale Price – $209,800
• Average Days on the Market – 113
• Average Dollar per Square Foot - $133.35
• Current Active Listings – 450
• Average Price of Active Listings - $263,851
• Months of Inventory – 5.06

Corvallis

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 184
• Average price – $294,995
• Median Sale Price – $280,000
• Average Days on the Market – 75
• Average Dollar per Square Foot - $167.91
• Current Active Listings – 234
• Average Price of Active Listings - $358,059
• Months of Inventory – 3.82

Lebanon

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 55
• Average price – $167,708
• Median Sale Price – $159.000
• Average Days on the Market – 119
• Average Dollar per Square Foot – $121.18
• Current Active Listings – 153
• Average Price of Active Listings - $218,402
• Months of Inventory – 8.35

Today’s guest - 11 and 13 October (a special Thursday edition of Real Estate Talk with an encore presentation on Saturday 13 October) Guest Greg Conser, Conser Design and Construction was in to talk about all the considerations when building your dream home. Considerations in finding and developing your lot, How to pick a builder; Where do you get a floor plan? New Green Building techniques.

October Schedule:

20 October – Kelly Gardner, Pinnacle Mortgage will be here with some information and advice on how to harness the equity in your home

27 October – Damon Hedges, Cascade Chimney Sweep and mason will be in to talk about brickwork projects around the home and maintaining your chimney now that the fall is here.

November Schedule:

• Bill Higby, Willamette Community Bank will be here talking about financial aspects of buying investment property
• John Pascone of the Albany/Millersburg Economic Development Corporation is scheduled to talk about the economic outlook for our area.

Real Estate Talk airs every Saturday morning from 10 to 11am on 1580 KGAL. Starting this month Real Estate Talk will begin airing on Thursdays as a Special Edition in place of Valley Talk beginning at 11am.  Check the schedule at www.kgal.com/realestatetalk.asp for details.  When a special Thursday edition airs, the following Saturday's show will be an encore performance.

Real Estate professionals talk...the most common topic of discussion lately is "how busy are you?"  The reason is simple, we are all trying to gauge what the climate is out there.  What do I mean by that?  Well, as I've written previously, the actual statistical analysis of the market does NOT match the emotional response that buyer's have been showing us. 

• Our market here in the Northwest is actually NOT suffering from the same doldrums that the national news keeps hyping every night. 
• The median sale price in Albany Oregon (my little town) has been steadily operating within a $10,000 band since February...with September being the first truly "down" month; that mostly a response to the turmoil in August.
• But despite the facts, many buyers are waiting for the other shoe to drop.  Some perhaps haven't been able to get the financing and others are waiting for prices to plummet.

Anecdotally, REALTORS® here are beginning to see an improvement in the overall climate;

• Open House visitations are reported as better in the past week then in the past 2 months
• Total number of floor calls seem to be rising
• One told me that she now has a couple of buyers, but all in the low $200K price range

If you are a seller...be patient.  There IS money out there available to qualified buyers...and the buyers will be back.  Recognize that many of them are looking for a bargain and will likely negotiate hard (especially for those homes that have been on the market beyond the average number of days).  If you are DESPERATE then it IS a buyer's market.  If you are realistic about the value of your home and are willing to stand up for that, you can keep the negotiating position in neutral (where the numbers say it is!)

If you are a buyer...create the strongest position you can.  Get financing in place, know your the range you are shopping in and check out EVERY HOME OUT THERE that meets your needs in your price range.  Try to find the seller who "has to" sell.  Do your research and you can find a bargain but don't let the perfect home for you and yours slide by as you wait for a better deal.

Fact:  A drop in the interest rates of 0.25 points, and a drop in housing prices of 4% - on a $200,000 loan equals a difference in your monthly payment of ONLY $80.00!  Is that worth you losing the right house in the right neighborhood?

Real Estate Talk Market Update for 05 October, 2007

(1) “SOLD” statistics include both SOLD and PENDING

(2) Months of Inventory Calculation based on the rate of sales in the previous 90 days.

Albany

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 266
• Average price – $224,702
• Median Sale Price – $200,300
• Average Days on the Market – 112
• Average Dollar per Square Foot - $133.08
• Current Active Listings – 450
• Average Price of Active Listings - $262,956
• Months of Inventory – 5.08

Dave's Analysis:  This shows the first signficant DROP in median sales price in recent months.  They had been relatively flat (even up slightly) from February.  Inventory has actually decreased slightly, but a decrease in the number of sales last month is resulting in a RISE in the Months of Inventory (now at 5.08).  I've been saying for a few months now that the Albany market is in neutral, with neither buyers nor sellers having sweeping leverage.  I still believe this to be true, however, unless the September numbers are just an anomaly, we may be in for a slightly bumpy ride through the winter.

Corvallis

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 192
• Average price – $294,231
• Median Sale Price – $280,160
• Average Days on the Market – 73
• Average Dollar per Square Foot - $168.18
• Current Active Listings – 233
• Average Price of Active Listings - $354,529
• Months of Inventory – 3.64

Dave's Analysis - We are also seeing a minor shift in the typically unassailable Corvallis market.  Median sales price has dipped and Months of Inventory has shown a steady (if slight) rise over the past weeks.  Much of this is due to the credit/mortgage issues in July and August, manifesting themselves in September sales numbers, but the question remains "if this is a temporary hitch in the giddyup...when is it going to start to turn around?"

Lebanon

• SOLD/Pending (past 90 days) – 59
• Average price – $166,571
• Median Sale Price – $158,000
• Average Days on the Market – 117
• Average Dollar per Square Foot – $121.33
• Current Active Listings – 151
• Average Price of Active Listings - $217,725
• Months of Inventory – 7.68

Dave's Analysis - In fact, in some ways Lebanon's market is showing a bit of a turnaround.  Inventory is DOWN from last week, prices (both median and average sale prices are stable from week to week), and the market PACE is actually improved slightly.  This is most significant in light of the changes in the Albany and Corvallis markets; Lebanon appears to be either holding steady or moving toward improvement in response to the July and August doldroms caused by the mortgage market.

Today’s guest - 6 October - Chip Cover – Conser Design and Construction. Chip will be here to talk about home maintenance and things to do to get your home ready for the Fall.

Upcoming guests:

11 October (a special Thursday edition of Real Estate Talk) Guest Greg Conser, Conser Design and Construction is scheduled to talk about all the considerations when building your dream home. How to pick a builder; Where do you get a floor plan? New Green Building techniques. *This show will air again on Saturday in our regular time slot from 10-11am.

20 October – Kelly Gardner, Pinnacle Mortgage will be here with some information and advice on how to harness the equity in your home

27 October - TBD

And in November:

Bill Higby, Willamette Community Bank will be here talking about financial aspects of buying investment property

John Pascone of the Albany/Millersburg Economic Development Corporation is scheduled to talk about the economic outlook for our area.

The Linn County Sheriff's Office will be hosting Tech Smartz during the month of October.

Parents and students can learn together about the dangers of online predators, websites like MySpace and Facebook, and how to keep kids safe on cell phones, web cams, online gaming and more.

Parents will also get some tips for "crossing the digital divide" to talk to their kids about online dangers; help them become more familiar with the Internet and emerging threats.

These forums are FREE and parents and kids are all welcome to attend.

All forums are held from 6pm to 8pm.

Dates and locations:

• Wednesday, October 3 - Central Linn High School Cafeteria
• Thursday, October 4 - Scio High School Gym
• Tuesday, October 23 -  Sweet Home High School Auditorium
• Wednesday, October 24 - Linus Pauling Middle School Gym
• Thursday, October 25 - Lebanon Seven Oak Middle School Gym
• Monday, October 29 - Harrisburg Middle School Gym
• Tuesday, October 30 - West Albany High School Student Center